Archive for May 21st, 2008

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Yesterday was a tough day in the markets, with the Dow falling 199 points. But if you follow some of the legends of finance - such as Carl Icahn, T. Boone Pickens and The Blackstone Group’s (NYSE: BX) Steven Schwarzman - you’ll notice that they’re getting aggressive.

Keep in mind that these guys have been through multiple market cycles. And if history is any worthy benchmark, it’s during times of instability where the big money is made.

Pickens is focusing on the energy industry. He sees major demand/supply imbalances and is buying various stocks. He is also interested in natural gas and alternative fuels.

As for Icahn, he’s doing what he does best - shareholder activism. He senses when companies are vulnerable and seems to relish an attack on corporate managements and boards. Of course, he’s gearing up for a fight with Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO). Interestingly enough, he persuaded Pickens to buy 10 million shares.

And with Schwarzman, he’s buying up the bank debt of companies that went private. Because Blackstone sees many deals, it has an extensive database of opportunities.

In other words, the legends of finance are confident in the long-term. They are making some big bets — based on lots of experience and due diligence — and not listening to the short-term noise. All in all, these are some valuable lessons for investors.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar On the web Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates MergerBook.com.

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Anadarko PetroleumToday was a very gloomy day in the stock market with Oil reaching new highs and everything else losing — nearly. Among the few winners, and I mean very few, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), oil, and specialty steel were up. I went through my watch list and found this very short list of winners:

Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) $78.49, up +$0.95 or 1.23%

Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) $185.90, up +$2.30 or 1.25%

Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) $49.92, +$0.85 up +$1.73%

Precision Drilling TR (NYSE: PDS) $27.90, up $1.13, or 4.22%

Reliance Steel and Aluminum (NYSE: RS) $67.37, +0.$52, or 0.78%

Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) $50.12, up +$0.43 or 0.87%

Each day people are asking how high oil prices will go and every day someone guesses much higher. Those folks will continue to be correct until they’re wrong so I will stay out of the prediction business. Of course the “guess” is my choice of words, for there are plenty of people who would like you to believe they actually “know” something.

I was wondering lately why oil prices have shot up 500% for a barrel during a period of time when demand has not even doubled. The best I can figure is the collapsing dollar is a third of the increase, demand is a third of the increase and speculation is the last third.

When things like this happen the conspiracy theorists come out of the woodwork, and they join ranks with the politicians to bad mouth “big oil” and all kinds of taxes and penalties and new regulations are threatened. How about, conservation, alternative energy, and allowing carefully planned off-shore oil exploration. Here’s a BIG idea — how about having any kind of cohesive energy policy at all.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of APC, PDS & VLO.

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